After Big Gains, Ukrainians Face Critical Choices 烏克蘭突奪回大片失土指揮官的新難題

2022年10月20日星期四

After Big Gains, Ukrainians Face Critical Choices 烏克蘭突奪回大片失土指揮官的新難題

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After Big Gains, Ukrainians Face Critical Choices 烏克蘭突奪回大片失土指揮官的新難題
Passage of Climate Bill Sparks a Surge in Clean Energy Projects 美國通過氣候法案潔淨能源計畫案大增

After Big Gains, Ukrainians Face Critical Choices 烏克蘭突奪回大片失土指揮官的新難題
文/Thomas Gibbons-Neff
譯/莊蕙嘉烏克蘭突奪回大片失土指揮官的新難題 After Ukraine's stunning offensive in its northeast drove Russian forces into a chaotic retreat and reshaped the battlefield by hundreds of miles, Ukrainian leaders were weighing critical gambles that could determine the near-term course of the war. 在烏克蘭於東北部展開驚人攻擊，讓俄國軍隊混亂撤退數百哩並重新開闢戰場後，烏克蘭領袖正慎重考慮可能決定近期戰爭走向的重大賭注。 Stretching the Ukrainian forces too far could leave the troops vulnerable to attack. Moving too slow, or in the wrong place, could leave an opportunity squandered. And waiting too long could allow the front lines to freeze as winter sets in. 讓烏軍前進太遠，可能讓部隊難以抵禦攻擊。移動太慢或方向錯誤，可能錯失良機。還有待命太久，可能在冬季將臨之際讓前線受凍。 By expelling Russian troops from a large slice of strategic territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are now positioned to make a move on the Donbas, the industrialized eastern territory that President Vladimir Putin of Russia has made central to his war aims. Just before flooding troops across the border in February, Putin declared the Donbas independent from Ukraine, and he held up the region's sovereignty as a key justification for the invasion. 在東北部哈爾科夫地區的一大片戰略領土上驅逐俄國部隊後，烏軍現在準備要在東部工業地區的頓巴斯採取行動，此處是俄國總統普亭戰爭目標的中心。就在大批俄國部隊今年2月跨越邊境之前，普亭宣稱頓巴斯從烏克蘭獨立，而且他將這個地區的主權作為正當化侵略行動的一項關鍵。 Russia now has control of nearly 90% of the Donbas, where its military shifted much of its focus after a staggering defeat around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in the spring. If Ukraine were to retake even a part of the region, it would be an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin. 俄國目前控制近九成頓巴斯地區，今年春季在烏克蘭首都基輔附近遭遇停滯的挫敗後，俄軍轉移大部分的焦點到此處。如果烏克蘭未來奪回這個地區，即使是一部分，也將是對克里姆林宮的一記難堪重擊。 Western analysts, including at the Pentagon, said that the Ukrainians were overall making gains as quickly as Russian forces were falling back. 包括五角大廈在內的西方分析家說，整體而言，烏克蘭有所斬獲的速度和俄軍節節敗退的速度一樣快。 But Ukraine faces potentially serious pitfalls if it pushes any farther. 但若烏克蘭向前推進，就會面臨潛在的巨大陷阱。 Any future advances would mean that Ukrainian forces would further extend their supply lines, straining convoys of fuel, ammunition and reinforcements as they have to move farther away from their established logistics hubs. 未來任何的推進，意味著烏軍需要進一步延伸他們的補給線，讓運送燃料、彈藥和援軍的車隊更吃力，他們必須從已經建立的後勤據點推進更多。 That could leave Ukrainian units vulnerable, said John Blaxland, a professor of security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University in Canberra. Although he added that a Russian counterattack was "not necessarily going to happen," in part because the morale of Moscow's troops appears to be foundering. 坎培拉的澳洲國立大學安全與情報研究教授布雷斯藍說，那可能讓烏克蘭部隊容易遭遇攻擊。他補充說，雖然俄國的反擊「不一定會發生」，部分是因為莫斯科的部隊士氣明顯受挫。 Russian officials face their own hard questions, especially with a growing backlash to their "special military operation" from pro-war voices at home. 俄國官員也面臨自家的艱難問題，特別是在家鄉支持戰爭的言論中，對於「特殊軍事行動」的反彈聲浪逐漸增加。 The current Ukrainian offensive "was a rapid breakthrough designed to take advantage of favorable positions and thinly manned Russian defenses," said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia. 美國維吉尼亞州阿靈頓的研究機構「海軍分析中心」俄國研究主任考夫曼說，現階段烏克蘭的攻擊「目的是利用有利位置和俄國防衛兵力薄弱，取得快速突破」。

Passage of Climate Bill Sparks a Surge in Clean Energy Projects 美國通過氣候法案潔淨能源計畫案大增
文/Jack Ewing、Ivan Penn
譯/莊蕙嘉美國通過氣候法案潔淨能源計畫案大增 In the weeks since President Joe Biden signed a comprehensive climate bill devised to spur investment in electric cars and clean energy, corporations have announced a series of big-ticket projects to produce the kind of technology the legislation aims to promote. 自從美國總統拜登簽署一項全面性氣候法案，擬定刺激電動車和潔淨能源投資，數周以來企業已宣布一系列大規模計畫，大量研發法案設定要推廣的科技。 Toyota said it would invest an additional $2.5 billion in a factory in North Carolina to produce batteries for electric cars and hybrids. Honda and LG Energy Solution announced a joint venture to build a $4.4 billion battery factory at a location to be named. 豐田說，將在北卡羅來納州一間製造電動車和油電車電池的工廠，追加投資25億美元。本田和愛爾集新能源宣布一項合資案，以44億美元建造電池工廠，地點之後公布。 Piedmont Lithium, a mining company, said it would build a plant in Tennessee to process lithium for batteries, helping to ease America's dependence on Chinese refineries — a key aim of the Biden administration. First Solar, a big solar panel manufacturer, said it would invest up to $1.2 billion to build its fourth factory in the United States, probably somewhere in the Southeast, largely because of renewable energy incentives in the climate bill. 礦業公司Piedmont Lithium說，將在田納西州建造工廠，加工用於電池的鋰，協助減少美國對中國精煉廠的依賴，這是拜登政府的一項主要目標。大型太陽能板製造商第一太陽能說，將投資高達12億美元，在美國建造第四座工廠，可能將在東南部，主因是氣候法案中的再生能源獎勵措施。 But those projects also illustrate how much work remains to be done. Factories take time to build, and until then electric vehicles are likely to remain scarce and expensive. Toyota's factory in North Carolina and Honda's venture with LG will not produce batteries until 2025. 但那些計畫也闡明了有多少工作等待完成。工廠要花時間建造，直到完工前，電動車可能仍然稀少且昂貴。豐田的北卡工廠和本田與愛爾集新能源的合資案，直到2025年才會開始製造電池。 Some of the projects were in the works before the federal legislation passed, and before California added an extra push by banning sales of new gasoline cars by 2035. The big climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, is the latest in a series of policy moves and geopolitical developments that have pushed automakers and suppliers to invest in the United States. The trade war with China, disruption of supply chains by the pandemic, changes in free-trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the bipartisan infrastructure law last year have all had a powerful impact on where companies decide to build factories. 這些計畫中的一些，早在聯邦法案通過前就已經開始作業了，並且也在加州追加「2035年之前禁止銷售新汽油車」的法令之前。這項巨大的氣候法案「降低通膨法」是一系列政治動作和地緣政治發展的最新舉措，催促汽車製造商和供應商在美國投資。和中國的貿易戰，疫情造成的供應鏈中斷，與加拿大及墨西哥的自由貿易協定更動，以及去年兩黨通過的基礎建設法案，全都對企業決定建造工廠有著強大影響。 At a time of economic uncertainty, the legislation gives companies more confidence that they can earn a return on their bets. The investments serve as affirmation of political leaders' intent: to further accelerate America's transition away from fossil fuels and to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, especially those in China. 在經濟不確定的時期，這項立法讓企業更有信心，認為他們的賭注能有回報。這些投資對於政治領袖的意圖如同一種肯定，更進一步加速美國從化石燃料轉型，並且減少對於外國供應商的依賴，特別是中國。 Investment in renewable energy will total $1.2 trillion by 2035, analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate, substantially more than would have been the case without the legislation. 伍德麥肯茲公司分析師估計，2035年之前投資再生能源總額將達到1.2兆美元，比沒有這項立法的情況下多很多。

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