Fiscal Populism To Be in Hands Of Billionaires 財政民粹主義 將會由億萬富翁掌控

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2025/01/24 第521期 訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

紐時周報精選 Fiscal Populism To Be in Hands Of Billionaires 財政民粹主義 將會由億萬富翁掌控 The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering 美國正建立預警系統 偵測太陽地球工程

Fiscal Populism To Be in Hands Of Billionaires 財政民粹主義 將會由億萬富翁掌控 文/Alan Rappeport and Ana Swans 譯/周辰陽 財政民粹主義 將會由億萬富翁掌控 When Donald Trump first ran for the White House in 2016, his closing campaign advertisement lamented the influence of Wall Street in Washington, flashing ominous images of big banks and billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros. 當川普2016年首度角逐白宮時，他的最終競選廣告感嘆華爾街在華府影響力，閃現大銀行和自由派億萬富翁慈善家索羅斯的預示影像。 Now, as president-elect, Trump has tapped two denizens of Wall Street to run his economic agenda. Scott Bessent, who invested money for Soros for more than a decade, is his pick for Treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, will be nominated to lead the Commerce Department. Trump's choices to lead his economic team show the prominence of billionaire investors in setting an agenda that is supposed to fuel a "blue-collar boom" but that skeptics think will mostly benefit the rich. 現在身為候任總統，川普選中兩個出身華爾街的人執行他的經濟議程。為索羅斯投資超過十年的貝森特是他的財政部長人選，而建達金融服務公司執行長盧特尼克將被提名領導商務部。川普的經濟團隊領導人選顯示，億萬富翁投資人在制定一項議程重要性，這項議程理應刺激「藍領繁榮」，但懷疑者認為主要會讓富人受益。 As Trump prepares to assume the presidency, business owners and investors are closely attuned to which of his economic promises he will follow through on. He has promised to slash tax rates, impose hefty tariffs on China and other countries, and deport millions of immigrants who work in American farms and businesses. 隨著川普準備就任總統，企業主和投資人密切關注他將兌現哪些經濟承諾。他已經許諾大砍稅率，對中國與其他國家徵收高關稅，並驅逐數百萬在美國農場和企業工作的移民。 The selections of Bessent and Lutnick cement a hold by Wall Street executives over the two most important economic posts in any administration. The picks are drawing blowback from Democrats and left-leaning groups, who assailed Trump for giving top jobs to rich donors and suggested that they would soon be working to create new tax breaks for the rich, not those who are struggling. 挑選貝森特與盧特尼克，鞏固華爾街高層對任何政府中兩個最重要經濟職位的掌握。這些人選正引起民主黨人和左傾團體的反彈，他們攻擊川普將最高職位交給有錢的金主，並暗示他們很快就會為富人制定新的減稅，而非生活艱難的人。 Yet the decision to tap Bessent and Lutnick is raising speculation that Trump could take a more market-friendly approach to many of his economic policies than some had feared because of his professed love of tariffs, which had the potential for igniting a global trade war. 然而，選中貝森特和盧特尼克的決定引發猜測，即川普許多經濟政策做法，可能比某些人所憂心的更友善市場，這些憂心是因為他喜愛關稅，而關稅有可能點燃一場全球貿易戰。 Trump's promises to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on goods from around the world, and tariffs of 60% or more on products from China, have worried business owners. But many investors still seem to be betting that he will not fully pursue those plans. 川普承諾對來自全世界的商品課徵10%至20%關稅，對來自中國的產品實施60%或以上的關稅，這讓企業主們發愁。但許多投資人似乎仍然在打賭，他不會完全推行這些計畫。 Some economists are more optimistic that the selection of nominees with deep market experience means that Trump may take a more measured approach to trade negotiations. 一些經濟學家更加樂觀認為，選擇具深厚市場經驗的人選意味，川普也許對貿易談判採取更加謹慎的方法。 "It gives me a little bit of hope that we're going to avoid the worst of the economic populism," said Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the free-market-oriented Cato Institute. "One of the biggest checks on Trump's populist impulses will be the markets." 主張自由市場的卡托研究所貿易專家林希康姆說，「這給了我一點希望，就是我們將避免經濟民粹主義的最壞部分。對川普民粹衝動的最大制衡之一將是市場」。 The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering 美國正建立預警系統 偵測太陽地球工程 文/Christopher Flavelle 譯/羅方妤 美國正建立預警系統 偵測太陽地球工程 In a guarded compound at the foot of the Rockies, government scientists are working on a new kind of global alarm system: one that can detect if another country, or maybe just an adventurous billionaire, tries to dim the sun. 在落磯山脈山腳下一間守備森嚴的院落，美國政府科學家正研究一種新型全球警報系統：這種系統可以偵測是否有另一個國家，或者也許只是一個喜歡冒險的億萬富翁，試圖使太陽變暗。 Every few weeks, researchers in Boulder, Colorado, release a balloon that rises 17 miles into the sky. Similar balloons are launched with less frequency from sites across the world. They make up the building blocks of a system that would alert U.S. scientists to geoengineering. 每隔數周，科羅拉多州波德的研究員就會施放一顆氣球，讓它飛升到約17英里高空。類似的氣球也以較低頻率在世界各地施放。它們構成一套系統的重要組件，這套系統會提醒美國科學家注意地球工程。 As the planet continues to heat up, the idea of intentionally trying to block solar radiation — sometimes called solar radiation modification, solar geoengineering or climate intervention — is gaining attention. Governments, universities, investors and environmentalists are pouring millions of dollars into research and modeling of geoengineering systems. 隨著地球持續升溫，有意阻止太陽輻射的想法正引起關注，這類想法有時稱為太陽輻射緩和、太陽地球工程或氣候干預。政府、大學、投資人和環保人士正投入數百萬美元，用於地球工程系統研究和建立模型。 It could be a relatively quick way to cool the planet. But it could also unleash untold dangers. 這可能是冷卻地球相對較快的方法，但可能會帶來不為人知的危險。 Many worry that solar geoengineering could have unintended consequences, shattering regional weather patterns and damaging everything from agriculture to local economies. And the first steps could be done quietly, by a rogue actor or another nation operating without any regulations or controls. 許多人擔心，太陽地球工程可能產生意想不到的後果，嚴重破壞區域天氣模式，損害農業和地區經濟等一切事物。而且最初步驟可能在沒有任何法規或管制的情況下，由不法份子或另一個國家悄悄完成。 So the United States is building a system that would allow it to determine if and when others may be trying to tamper with the Earth's thermostat. 因此，美國正在建立一個系統，使其能查明其他人是否及何時可能試圖蓄意破壞地球的恆溫機制。 "It's some of the most important stratospheric science going on in the world today," said David Fahey, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Chemical Sciences Laboratory, which is building the network of balloon sentries. 美國國家海洋暨大氣總署化學科學實驗室正在建立氣球崗哨網。實驗室主任費希表示：「這是當今世上最重要的平流層科學。」 Both NOAA and NASA have satellites that can detect large quantities of aerosols in the atmosphere, but they can't pick up smaller amounts. That's where the balloons come in. Each one carries a 6-pound contraption, filled with wires and tubes. The device measures tiny airborne particles, or aerosols. A jump could indicate the presence of an unusual amount of aerosols in the stratosphere, possibly to deflect some of the sun's heat back into space. 美國國家海洋暨大氣總署和美國太空總署都有衛星，能偵測大氣中大量的氣溶膠，但無法捕捉較少數量的氣溶膠。這就是氣球派上用場的地方。每顆氣球攜帶重六磅、裡面裝滿電線和管子的裝置。這個裝置會測量空氣中的微小顆粒，或稱氣溶膠。一個突然跳動可能表示平流層中存在異常數量的氣溶膠，有可能將一些太陽的熱量移回太空。 Fahey's team is building the capacity to detect, track and understand the effects of any unusual aerosol release. 費希的團隊建立的能力，可偵測、追蹤和理解任何異常氣溶膠釋放帶來的影響。 Researchers stress that these detection efforts are still in their infancy. As of now, they believe that solar geoengineering has only been attempted at a very small scale, despite the claims of conspiracy theorists. 研究人員強調，這些偵測工作尚處於起步階段。截至目前，他們認為太陽地球工程只能以非常小的規模進行嘗試，儘管陰謀論者有些說法。 But the work taking place demonstrates how geoengineering has morphed from the stuff of science fiction to a source of growing concern for the government. 但正在進行的工作顯示，地球工程已從科幻小說內容，轉變成政府日益憂心的問題來源。

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