Climate Change Can Turn Snow Into Rain, Raising Risks in Mountain Zones 氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高

2023年8月24日星期四

Climate Change Can Turn Snow Into Rain, Raising Risks in Mountain Zones 氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高

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2023/08/25 第447期訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

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Climate Change Can Turn Snow Into Rain, Raising Risks in Mountain Zones 氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高
In Poorer Countries, Obesity Can Be Seen By Banks as a Signal of Creditworthiness 在貧窮國家愈胖可能貸款信譽愈高

Climate Change Can Turn Snow Into Rain, Raising Risks in Mountain Zones 氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高
文/Delger Erdenesanaa
譯/周辰陽氣候變遷化雪為雨山區風險升高 As the climate warms, mountain regions will get more extreme rainfall than previously thought, and more of the dangers that come with it, according to a study published in the journal Nature. 根據一份發表在《自然》期刊的研究，隨著氣候暖化，山區將出現比之前認為要更極端的降雨量，以及隨之而來的更多危險。 While scientists have studied how climate change may increase extreme precipitation overall, until now they hadn't teased apart how much of the most extreme precipitation will fall as snow and how much as rain. The distinction is important because rain tends to produce more hazards for humans than snow does, including floods, landslides and soil erosion. 雖然科學家已經研究氣候變遷可能增加總體極端降水量，但直到現在，他們還沒有梳理清楚最極端的降水量中，有多少是降雪，多少是降雨。這種區別十分重要，因為比起雪，雨往往對人類造成更多危害，包括洪水、山崩跟土壤侵蝕。 As the planet heats up, snow is starting to turn into rain, even in the mountains. The study found that for every 1 degree Celsius that the planet warms, higher elevations can expect 15% more extreme rainfall. 隨著地球溫度上升，雪正開始變為雨，即使在山區亦然。這項研究發現，地球每變暖攝氏一度，較高海拔就可以預期增加15%的極端降雨量。 "This is the first time that it has ever been quantified," said the study's lead author, Mohammed Ombadi, an environmental data scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This increase in extreme rainfall is "almost double" the increase in total extreme precipitation, including both rain and snow, that climate scientists previously expected. The precipitation finding applies only to the world's highest regions, above approximately 2,000 meters of elevation. 研究主要作者、勞倫斯柏克萊國家實驗室環境資料科學家翁巴迪說，「這是第一次對此進行量化」。包括雨跟雪兩者在內，這種極端降雨量的增加，是氣候科學家先前預期的總極端降水量增加值「幾乎翻倍」。這項降水量調查結果僅適用於海拔約2000公尺以上的全世界最高區域。 But about one-quarter of the human population lives either in mountain regions or directly downstream from them, Ombadi said. While landslides don't travel very far, flooding tends to affect people downstream more. 但翁巴迪說，約四分之一人口生活在山區或山區的直接下游。雖然山崩不會行進很遠，洪水影響下游民眾往往更嚴重。 In their study, Ombadi and his colleagues analyzed historical data from 1950 to 2019 as well as projections of climate change through the end of the 21st century. They focused on the temperate and Arctic regions of the Northern Hemisphere because data from the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere is lacking. 在他們的研究中，翁巴迪與他的同僚分析1950至2019年的歷史資料，以及直到21世紀末的氣候變遷預測。因為缺乏南半球與熱帶的資料，他們專注於北半球溫帶與北極地區。 As they modeled different global warming scenarios, the researchers found that extreme rainfall kept increasing steadily, at the same rate, for each degree of warming. "If you have 1 degree of warming, then that's a 15% increase. If it's 3 degrees, then that's going to be a 45% increase in rainfall," Ombadi explained. 當他們為不同的全球暖化情境建模，研究人員發現，每變暖一度，極端降雨量就按相同速率繼續穩定增加。翁巴迪解釋，「如果變暖一度，那就是增加15%。如果是三度，那麼降雨量將增加45%」。 This was a surprise, as the team expected the increase in rainfall to slow down and plateau as temperatures rose more and more. They used several different climate models, with relatively consistent results between all of them. "The big message is that every degree matters," Ombadi said. 這是一個意外發現，因為團隊預期，隨著氣溫升得愈來愈高，降雨量的增加將放緩與穩定。他們使用幾種不同的氣候模型，而所有模型之間的結果相對一致。翁巴迪說，「重要的訊息是，每一度都重要」。

In Poorer Countries, Obesity Can Be Seen By Banks as a Signal of Creditworthiness 在貧窮國家愈胖可能貸款信譽愈高
文/Patricia Cohen
譯/陳曉慈在貧窮國家愈胖可能貸款信譽愈高 In the world's wealthiest countries, the richer people are, the thinner they tend to be. 在全球最富裕的國家，愈有錢的人似乎愈瘦。 But in Uganda, one of the poorest nations, where nearly half the people eat fewer calories than they need each day, excess fat is often a sign of wealth and can help get a bank loan, according to an article in The American Economic Review. 但「美國經濟評論」的一篇文章指出，在全球最窮國家之一、近半數人民每日熱量攝取不足的烏干達，肥胖常是富裕的象徵，胖子想跟銀行貸款也比較容易。 It's not surprising that in places where food is scarce, obesity serves as a significant marker of wealth. 住在糧食匱乏地區的人民視肥胖為財富重要指標，這項發現並不令人意外。 But what the new study points out is that in poor countries, information is also scarce. And in those situations, loan officers use whatever bits of evidence they can find to help make critical economic decisions. 但這份新研究還指出，在一些貧窮國家，資訊也十分不足。在這樣的情況下，貸款專員只能運用他們找到的任何線索，協助自己做出重要經濟判斷。 "Given the scarcity of readily available hard information in poor countries, wealth signals, including obesity, play a crucial role in economic interactions where individuals seek to evaluate someone's wealth," said Elisa Macchi, an assistant professor of economics at Brown University. 布朗大學經濟學助理教授艾莉莎．瑪奇說：「貧窮國家的既有客觀資料稀缺，因此在經濟互動過程中，個人需要判斷某人的財富狀況時，財富線索就變得十分重要，包括肥胖。」 As part of her research, Macchi conducted tests with 238 loan officers at 146 financial institutions in the capital city of Kampala. She asked them to review applications from fictionalized potential borrowers whose accompanying photographs were manipulated so they appeared thin or fat. 作為研究的一部分，在烏干達首都康培拉，瑪奇對146個金融機構的238名貸款專員進行測試。她請他們瀏覽一些虛構的潛在貸款人資料，附上的照片經過修改，讓他們看起來較胖或較瘦。 It is not uncommon in Uganda for people to include a photo of themselves when submitting a loan application, and it can be one nugget of information that a loan officer uses to decide whether to even grant an applicant a first interview, Macchi said. 瑪奇說，在烏干達，人們在貸款申請表附上自己的照片，並非不尋常，而照片可能成為影響貸款專員判斷的關鍵資訊，讓他們決定是否提供貸款人首次面談。 She discovered that loan officers were more likely to rate the applicants as more creditworthy and more financially sound when the obese version of the photograph was attached. 瑪奇發現，若附上肥胖版照片，貸款專員比較會將申請人評為更有信用及財務狀況良好。 "The obesity premium is large, equivalent to the effect of a 60% increase in borrower self-reported income in the experiment," or an additional asset like ownership of a car, the study concluded. 這項研究的結論是，「肥胖附加價值很大，在實驗中，效果相當於貸款人申報收入增加了60%」，或擁有汽車等附加資產。 Historically, corpulence was prized in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Mauritania was once notorious for the custom of brutally force-feeding young girls to make them more marriageable — a practice referred to as gavage, taken from the French term for force-feeding geese to produce foie gras. Fat was considered both a sign of family wealth and a cultural ideal. 歷史上，部分撒哈拉以南非洲地區確實崇尚肥胖。茅利塔尼亞曾因一項習俗而惡名昭彰，就是粗暴的強制灌食年輕女孩，讓她們更好嫁人。這項作法被稱作強灌，源自法文中描述強制灌食鵝隻以獲得肥肝的術語。胖不僅是家族富裕的象徵，茅國文化也以胖為美。 Lately, obesity has become an increasingly worrisome health risk on the continent, a development that follows the trend in the richest nations where obesity is often correlated with poverty. 近來在非洲大陸，肥胖已成為一個愈來愈令人憂心的健康風險，這個發展與一些最富裕國家的趨勢一致，在那些地方肥胖往往與貧窮相關。

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