【先探投資週刊2111期】Q4鑽石股清單－趁大盤回檔 鎖定先蹲後跳股

	【bobo小天才．輕鬆玩教養】針對家長頭痛的學齡前教養問題開闢解決方案，讓家長輕鬆地教導孩子。 【Live 互動英語報】內容生動且生活化，讓生活中的點點滴滴成為最好的學習教材，並讓你輕鬆開口說英語！

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2020/10/01 | 第503期 | 訂閱/退訂 | 看歷史報份 | 每週五出刊 | 先探網站 封面故事 Q4鑽石股清單   老謝專欄 謝金河：又到趨勢的轉折點   活動看板 活動快訊   Q4鑽石股清單 【文/馮欣仁】 股市最大的風險就是漲多，套用在過去一周美股與台股表現來看確實是如此。今年以來，在各國政府為了力抗肺炎疫情，防堵經濟衰退，各央行均祭出低利率政策，創造極度寬鬆貨幣政策，導引資金流向股市，促使美股四大指數大漲，尤其，具指標性的個股如蘋果電腦、特斯拉、亞馬遜等科技巨擘，股價漲幅均優於大盤。然而，近期因面臨到二次疫情恐再度爆發、美中貿易戰持續緊繃以及美國總統選戰進入白熱化等諸多變數存在，造成股市出現震盪，四大指數均已跌破季線。 籌碼與技術面較不利多方 向來以美股馬首是瞻的台股，自然受到拖累。九月二十四日加權指數更大跌三○○多點，一舉摜破季線支撐，外資當天更大賣四三六億元，創下史上第六大賣超；累計今年賣超金額逾七○○○億元。綜觀台股前二○大市值企業之股價技術型態，除了護國神山台積電與聯電力守在季線上之外，其餘十八家企業股價均已跌破季線或年線，多數呈現空頭排列。尤其，代表股市多頭指標的股王大立光股價頻頻破底，逼近三月十九日低點三二四○元，股王走勢牽動高價股表現。能否守住三二四○元關卡，得端看十月上旬蘋果iPhone 12新機發表會，以及第四季高階智慧型手機拉貨動能。 就技術面而言，台股短線明顯轉弱，未來若美股無法有效反彈，以及外資賣壓無法減緩，台股恐有回測年線之壓力。從過去歷史經驗來看，九月果然是一個多事之秋，加上台股自今年三月十九日起漲，不少個股漲幅已大，法人陸續開始獲利了結；再者，近期融資餘額水位再度升高至一五○○億元左右，籌碼明顯凌亂，使得當前操作難度不小，建議投資人仍謹慎為宜。不過，對於美國總統川普而言，股市表現向來是他引以自豪的一大政績，為了尋求連任的他，在十一月三日投票日之前，或許仍有利多政策來刺激股市。畢竟執政者都會希望營造出股市多頭氣氛，贏得選民之信任感與選票。 因此，是否會上演十月驚奇，孰難預料。十月十日之前國內上市櫃企業將陸續公布九月營收，屆時第三季業績即可表露無遺，倘若股價已領先回檔且技術指標相對在低檔附近，或有跌深反彈行情可期。再者，也可逢低布局，第四季營運展望不錯之類股，例如：半導體晶圓代工、ＩＣ設計、ＮＢ零組件等產業，訂單能見度頗高，且部分還具備漲價題材。上述相關產業分析與技術面分析，將在後面章節有深入報導。 環泥業內業外好轉 事實上，從過去歷史統計來看，受到季節性因素的影響，每年第四季到隔年第一季，加權股價指數上漲的機率往往高於下跌的機率；不妨可以趁著這波回檔之際，開始逢低布局質優、具有產業競爭力之個股。此外，新台幣匯率仍維持強勢，仍有利於資產、內需相關產業；第四季也是水泥產業傳統旺季，自九月起，中國各地區的水泥價格已陸續調漲。在各水泥廠庫存水位逐漸下滑，第四季又是基建、民間建築工程的趕工旺季，需求快速回升下，台泥、亞泥均表示，第四季的行情必定是「價漲量增」，預期會是今年營運最旺的一季。 除了水泥之外，預拌混擬土價格也走揚，主要是因低利率促使國內房市買氣熱絡以及台商回台擴廠，帶動建材相關原物料價格易漲難跌。國內石膏板龍頭環泥，近年來已從預拌混凝土、水泥等老本業，切入利潤更高的建材市場。去年環泥再與日本建材大廠Nichiha（日吉華株式會社）簽約，代理木纖維水泥板外牆在台銷售，擴大在建材市場的布局。 今年上半年環泥本業毛利率與營益率表現均優於去年同期，係因科技大廠對預拌混凝土品質、強度要求高，使得平均單價提升，是毛利提升的原因之一；不過，第一季受轉投資生產汽車輪圈的六和機械因疫情關係，侵蝕獲利。第二季隨著中國車市回溫與產能恢復，營運動能回溫，促使環泥上半年獲利仍優於去年同期，ＥＰＳ達○．七三元。雖然第三季為傳統淡季，但在產品毛利率維持高檔下，獲利表現仍可期待；第四季在旺季效應加持下，法人預估環泥今年ＥＰＳ可望挑戰一．八∼二元，目前本益比不到十倍，且股價仍低於每股淨值二六．五七元。環泥具備低本益比與低股價淨值比之雙重優勢，投資價值已浮現。 【本文未完，全文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》2111期；訂閱先探投資週刊電子版】 謝金河：又到趨勢的轉折點 【文/謝金河】 很多老經驗的資深投資人都知道，在市場歡暢快樂時出手買進的股票，往往賠錢機會很大；反之，在市場看壞的絕望中，怕怕時買進的股票比較容易賺錢，現在台股進入盤整，這一陣子很多急漲的股票都出現殺盤，其實是到了認真選股的好時機。 從全球股市的角度來看，二○二○年疫情貫穿全年，從元月二十三日武漢封城迄今，肺炎疫情已持續了八個多月，而且，迄今沒有出現有效疫苗，照這個情勢看下去，也許疫情到明年仍不會明朗化，也帶給產業完全不一樣的榮枯，就像諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯曼所說的Ｋ型理論，上面這一方是新經濟體，像美國FAAMG、Nvidia、Netflix、Tesla等科技公司，Ｋ的下方是觀光、旅遊、航空及很多傳統產業，產業榮枯大不相同。 屏息以待美大選結果 而全球股市也呈現十分戲劇性變化，其中美國道瓊指數在三月二十三日跌到一八二一三．六五的低點，從高檔跌下來，一口氣跌了一萬一千多點，美股慘跌，也造成多次熔斷紀錄，但是在美國Fed及政府奮力做多的情況下，股市展開大反彈，這次標普五○○從二一九一．八六大漲到三五八八．一一，Nasdaq從六六三一．四二大漲到一二○七四．○七，美國新經濟股大漲特漲，漲到令人目眩的地步。 二○二○年疫情重創全球經濟體，但是靠著貼近於零的利率，且利率未來幾年都會在零利率邊緣的助力，全球股市出現了一波榮景，尤其是新經濟、科技強大的國家，如美、中、台、韓今年股市都走出漂亮的新格局，但是沒有只漲不跌的股市，美國科技股到了九月都出現拉回走勢。 例如美國前五大市值企業，Apple從一三七．九八跌到一○三．一美元，回檔二五％，Amazon從三五五二．二五折返二八七一美元，也回挫十九．一七％，今年漲勢最凌厲的Tesla在分拆後也跌到三二九．八八，這是漲多的修正，到今天為止，美國各大指數仍站在年線上，多頭架構未遭到破壞。 台股今年是令人驚嘆的一年，加權指數在台積電寫下四六六．五元的一刻寫下一三○三一．七的歷史最高價，這是七月二十八日的事，如今台股陷入一二五○○上下加減五○○點的區間盤整，櫃買市場與生技股連動，在七月九日就寫下最高紀錄，這也是個調整走勢，往下看，全球股市包括台股都會面臨幾個變數考驗。 一是美國總統大選在十一月三日揭曉，已剩下短暫的一個多月，川普與拜登之爭，決定未來美中爭霸與台美關係未來的情勢，假如川普順利連任，世界的軌道繼續運行，股市也會在軌道上前進；反之，若拜登勝選，全球可能出現較大變化，尤其是拜登主張對科技業加重稅，美國股市可能出現較大的回檔，這也使得長線資金投鼠忌器，大家選擇觀望。 台股挺住了外資大賣超 二是在美中角力中，美國在半導體產業使出撒手?，美國對華為制裁，下一個目標指向中芯，都會對產業帶來重大影響，華為沒有上市，但衝擊台股龐大供應鏈，這次聯發科從七六三元跌到五五一元，顯然受到華為衝擊很大；京元電創下二九．四五元，日月光也出現五八．二元新低價；衝擊最大的是有七成印刷電路板供應華為的相互，過去兩年ＥＰＳ都超過四元，今年上半年虧損，因華為而重創，決定減薪並資遣員工六○○人，可以想見華為對台灣的供應鏈衝擊有多大，這次華為蒐購的庫存能支持多久？未來會出現什麼變化？都是值得觀察的重點。 三是台股在外資大賣超七一○○億元的巨大壓力下居然挺得住，未來會有更大格局，從好的角度來看，二○二一年外資勢必加碼不可，這也是台股支撐力道會變強的主因，因為到了明年，外資更大的賣壓不會再有，而且，台股的高毛利率及殖利率優勢，仍是全世界最亮眼的市場，這當中台積電會是多空最重要的指標。 從線型來看台積電，七月二十八日Intel宣布七奈米製程順延一年，台積電ＡＤＲ衝高十四％，台積電開盤漲停板到四六六．五元，這一天成交十七．二一萬張，成交量約七七○億，一檔股票占了大盤大約五分之一的成交量，當然是過熱的訊號，台積電隨即進入調整，台股何時再越過一三○○○點往前進，台積電當然是重要訊號，這當中包括華為的訂單消失後，台積電第四季營收與淨利會出現什麼變化？二是台積電季配息二．五元是不是出現變化，如果改成每季配三元，殖利率立刻出現大變化，也會影響股價。 四是台股進入中秋及國慶長假，短線資金會退卻，也不利多頭上攻，最近生技、電子陷入整理，ＴＤＲ股投機飆漲，這是市場炒作的資金四處亂竄，也算是墊檔的演出。不過，不論台股整理時間有多長，如果這是一個整理格局，那麼現在正好是切入基本面好的個股、注意買點的好時機。假如很多生技股拉高，合一一度從四七六．五元下殺到一五三．五元，這一波彈升算是強勢；疫苗概念的高端疫苗已從一三四．五元回測到八七．二元。很多醫材股像額溫槍的熱映一五七．五元下殺到八一．四元，幾乎腰斬；「天國一輝」的杏輝從六八．五元跑到三六．九元，也幾乎腰斬；杏國從一五五元跌到五九元，股價慘跌六二％。這提醒大家，市場熱到最高點的時候，基本面的實力是股價的後盾，如果基本面夠紮實，股價回檔可能出現好的買點。 【本文未完，全文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》2111期；訂閱先探投資週刊電子版】 先探投資週刊2111期更多精彩文章延伸閱讀 ◎封面故事：Q4鑽石股清單 ◎特別企劃：撒幣振興 消費股年底嗨 ◎焦點議題：Mini LED 股買點到了嗎? ◎中港直擊：復甦題材激勵陸汽車股大漲 ◎產業脈動：矽智財廠享高毛利 誰是黑馬? ◎生技園區：漲也疫情 跌也疫情 活動快訊 ◎先探i投資YouTube開播了 ◎興櫃總覽好評熱賣中！ ◎12/13-12/15跟著老謝同遊花蓮 ◎2020產業百科全書 隆重登埸！ ◎後疫情時代生技投資全攻略，全省熱烈銷售中 ◎訂先探一季13期送《杜金龍半世紀選股聖經》 ◎訂先探一年52期送《德律風根自動機器人掃地機》 ◎高手投資人3小時精闢解讀一生必讀投資經典！ •武陵農場也賣冰 推獨家冰品「黃、綠、紅」冰淇淋 夏天吃冰人口多，武陵農場也推出冰品大賞，「黃、綠、紅」系列冰淇淋，以獨家特殊口味製做，用顏色區分獨特口味。黃、綠、紅系列冰淇淋是以顏色為區分的黃─杭菊冰淇淋、綠─青茶口味冰淇淋及紅─茶冰淇淋。 •「未來肉」搶佔餐桌筷經濟 3D列印機噴頭來回穿梭，一塊色澤誘人的牛排逐漸成形。仔細一看，後端連接的並非一般的墨水，甚至場所也十分特別－國際太空站。這樣的場景並非發生在科幻電影或者小說，而是在2019年已經完成的實驗。

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A TIME FOR FAMILY: YOUR GUIDE TO THE MOON FESTIVAL IN TAIWAN

	【bobo小天才．輕鬆玩教養】針對家長頭痛的學齡前教養問題開闢解決方案，讓家長輕鬆地教導孩子。 【Live 互動英語報】內容生動且生活化，讓生活中的點點滴滴成為最好的學習教材，並讓你輕鬆開口說英語！

★ 無法正常瀏覽內容，請按這裡線上閱讀 新聞  健康  u值媒  udn部落格

2020/10/01 第264期 ｜訂閱/退訂｜看歷史報份｜Taipei A TIME FOR FAMILY: YOUR GUIDE TO THE MOON FESTIVAL IN TAIWAN       A TIME FOR FAMILY: YOUR GUIDE TO THE MOON FESTIVAL IN TAIWAN 文/Taipei Taiwanese share mooncakes with family during the Moon Festival as a symbol of family reunion. (Photo/Foto T) Words by: Adam Hopkins Photos by: Aron Visuals, Taiwan Scene, PhuShutter, Foto T, Illustration by: yienkeat In Taiwan, the Moon Festival, also known as Mid-Autumn Festival (中秋節), falls on the 15th day of the 8th month of the lunar calendar, and this year it will be on Thursday, October 1. While its origins are agricultural — the Moon Festival is an important harvest celebration — nowadays, the most predominant aspect of the holiday is family reunion; in particular gathering for a big family dinner. Sometimes referred to as Reunion Festival, the celebration falls on this specific date, for it is guaranteed that the moon will be at its largest, shining down on families while they eat and enjoy each other’s company, because a big, round moon symbolizes family unity and togetherness. MOON FESTIVAL MYTHS AND STORIES There are various tales associated with the Moon Festival that have been passed down over the generations. One story is that of Chang’e Flying to the Moon (嫦娥奔月). In a time when there were ten suns in the sky, causing plants to wither and rivers to run dry, people were struggling to get by. A talented young archer called Hou Yi (后羿) had enough of this suffering. He took his supernatural bow to the top of Kunlun Mountain (崑崙山) and shot down nine of the ten suns. The people revered him as a hero and many young men flocked to him to learn archery, including the wicked Peng Meng (逢蒙). Hou Yi later married a beautiful young lady by the name of Chang’e (嫦娥). One day he came across the Queen Mother of the West (西王母) and asked her to give him an immortality elixir, a drug so powerful that those who took it would fly to the heavens, becoming immortal in the process. Reluctant to leave his wife on earth forever, Hou Yi gave Chang’e the elixir to store in a wooden box should he ever want to take it. Unbeknownst to Chang’e, however, Peng Meng spotted her hiding away the immortality elixir. One day, while Hou Yi and his archery disciples were out hunting, Peng Meng feigned sickness and said he would stay home. Sword in hand, he instead entered Chang’e’s house, threatening her to give him the elixir. Refusing to hand it over to this malicious intruder, she took it herself instead and immediately began ascending toward the heavens. Distraught about not seeing her husband ever again, she landed on the moon to stay as close as possible. Hou Yi discovered what had happened upon his return home and was devastated. He wept and called his wife’s name toward the sky. While doing so, he noticed that the moon was bigger and brighter than usual and saw what appeared to be his wife’s shadow. Then he began laying out offerings of her favorite fruits and burning incense, and upon hearing the news, people began following suit, praying to Chang’e for good fortune and peace. People have prayed to the moon during the Mid-Autumn Festival ever since. There is also the legend of the Jade Rabbit (玉兔). Said to keep Chang’e company on the moon, the Jade Rabbit is a symbol used widely across Asia. The story says the Jade Emperor (玉皇大帝) disguised himself as a poor, starving old man and begged for food from various animals. The monkey gathered fruit from the trees, while the otter collected fish from the river. The jackal stole curds but the lowly rabbit could only manage to collect grass. The rabbit knew that this would not suffice, so instead sacrificed itself for the elderly man, throwing itself into the fire that the man had started. The elderly man then revealed his true identity and sent the rabbit to the moon to become the Jade Rabbit. The Jade Rabbit is said to work in the Moon Palace (廣寒宮), using a mortar and pestle to grind herbs to produce the immortality elixir. Many associate the rabbit with selflessness and sacrifice. Yet another legend is that of Wu Gang the Woodcutter (吳剛伐桂) — a woodcutter so tired of his simple life that he desired to become immortal. However, he was not persistent enough and always gave up halfway through when learning longevity techniques. Consequently, the angry Jade Emperor decided to punish Wu Gang by making him chop down a self-healing osmanthus tree on the moon. The tree can be cut down only if Wu does it without respite. Only then would he be rewarded with immortality. However, he chopped away at it without success until this very day, and some say that you can hear Wu Gang still trying to chop down the tree during the Moon Festival period. MOON FESTIVAL TRADITIONS AND CUSTOMS APPRECIATING THE MOON Since this day always coincides with a full moon, people often gather with their family to appreciate the view of the moon. The full moon eventually became a symbol of family reunion, and for thousands of years poets have written about gazing at the moon while on the topic of homesickness. Parks and mountains are the most popular spots where family or friends gather and admire the moon during this time. FAMILY GATHERINGS The main part of the Moon Festival is getting together with family, since this is one of the few occasions throughout the year where families can all be in the same place at the same time, without worry for work or other commitments. The family dinner in particular is the most cherished aspect of the reunion, with many people trying to get home, if only for dinner, if they don’t have time to see their family for the entire day. People in Taiwan also love to barbecue at these gatherings as part of a relatively recent tradition that emerged just a few decades ago. In addition to gatherings, sending well-wishes to absent family members is also a widely-practiced custom. EATING MOONCAKES Mooncakes (月餅), a kind of traditional Chinese pastry, are another symbol of family reunion, and often cut into the same number of pieces as a family has members. They usually have a sweet stuffing, such as sugar and lotus seed powder, but also come in many different varieties such as red bean or salted egg yolk. Enjoying mooncakes is the most common and widely-practiced tradition of the Moon Festival, and it is also the time of year when these pastries are eaten the most. EATING POMELO Another food that is usually enjoyed during the Moon Festival is pomelo. The pomelo is a round, sweet fruit and considered a symbol of good luck and family unity by the Chinese. In Mandarin, it is pronounced youzi (柚子), which is a homophone for a word that translates to “prayer for a son (有子) .” So, eating pomelo is said to signify a prayer for the youth of the family. Also, it is said to be one of Chang’e’s favorite foods. While perhaps not as important a date in the calendar as Lunar New Year, to many families, the Moon Festival is still a big part of the year and something to be looked forward to and cherished. So, don’t forget to grab a mooncake and, even if you can’t be there in person, get in touch with and send well wishes to those you hold dearest.   •武陵農場也賣冰 推獨家冰品「黃、綠、紅」冰淇淋 夏天吃冰人口多，武陵農場也推出冰品大賞，「黃、綠、紅」系列冰淇淋，以獨家特殊口味製做，用顏色區分獨特口味。黃、綠、紅系列冰淇淋是以顏色為區分的黃─杭菊冰淇淋、綠─青茶口味冰淇淋及紅─茶冰淇淋。 •「未來肉」搶佔餐桌筷經濟 3D列印機噴頭來回穿梭，一塊色澤誘人的牛排逐漸成形。仔細一看，後端連接的並非一般的墨水，甚至場所也十分特別－國際太空站。這樣的場景並非發生在科幻電影或者小說，而是在2019年已經完成的實驗。   本電子報內容均為臺北市政府觀光傳播局所有，未經同意不得轉載 11008臺北市市府路1號中央區4樓　與我聯絡 電話：02-27287570、02-27287564 傳真：02-27205909

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